After last night’s Toronto Maple Leafs win over the Tampa Bay Lightning, where Matthew Knies scored the overtime winning goal and a hattrick, I asked Grok which strategy the Leafs should go with in contract talks with Knies.
Grok favours a bridge deal and I agree.
The Leafs need to be in a “win now” mode with this window of players.
It’s not so much that the team’s core is getting old, it’s more that the Leafs need to be able to afford to pay a supporting cast that can push the team across the line for a Stanley Cup.
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Transcript
Grok:
Matthew Knies putting up a hat trick against the Tampa Bay Lightning last night—April 9, 2025—is a hell of a statement. The kid’s 22, in his second full NHL season, and showing he’s got the goods: size, physicality, and now a clear knack for finding the net. That kind of performance doesn’t just turn heads; it moves the needle in contract talks. So, what should the Leafs do with him? Let’s break it down.
Knies is a restricted free agent (RFA) after this season, meaning Toronto has control and can match any offer sheet. He’s on the last year of his entry-level deal, a bargain at $925,000 AAV, and his camp’s been quiet—publicly, at least—about negotiations. The Leafs, under GM Brad Treliving, have a few paths here, and it’s about balancing cost, term, and the team’s tight cap situation.
One option is a bridge deal—say, 3-4 years at $5-6 million AAV. This keeps the cap hit manageable while Knies proves he can sustain this kind of production. He’s got 25 goals already this season (assuming that hat trick bumped him up), and if he’s pacing for 30+ goals and 50+ points, that’s solid but not elite yet. A bridge lets Toronto buy time, see if he’s a 70-point power forward in the making, and keeps flexibility with big UFAs like Mitch Marner and John Tavares looming. The downside? If he keeps trending up, you’re paying way more in 2028 or 2029 when he’s an RFA again—or worse, a UFA if he’s 27 by then.
The other play is going long-term now—6-8 years at $7-9 million AAV. This locks him in before his value skyrockets, especially if he’s the “unicorn” power forward analysts like Jason Bukala call him. Comparables like Matt Boldy (7 years, $7 million) or Brady Tkachuk (7 years, $8.2 million) suggest $7-8 million could be the sweet spot, factoring in the rising cap (projected at $92.5 million for 2025-26). Knies brings a rare mix—goals, hits (150+ this year), and top-line fit with Matthews and Marner. A long deal bets on him being a cornerstone, but it’s a risk if he plateaus or if injuries hit that big frame.
What’s the smart move? I’d lean bridge—3 years, $5.5 million AAV. Why? Toronto’s window is now, and they’re already juggling $40 million tied up in Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares (if he re-signs cheaper). Knies hasn’t proven he’s a $9 million guy yet—his career high was 35 points last year, and even with a breakout, he’s not at Tkachuk’s 80-point level. A bridge keeps the powder dry to chase a defenseman or depth this offseason, then reassess Knies when the cap’s higher and Tavares’ deal is off the books. If he’s pissed off about “earning it,” he’ll just score more and cash in later.
That hat trick’s a loud knock, but the Leafs shouldn’t empty the vault just yet. They’ve got leverage as his RFA rights holder—use it.
Me:
I think you might be right, given the Leafs apparent window.
Grok:
Yeah, the window’s the kicker here. Toronto’s built this core—Matthews, Marner, Nylander—for a Cup run now, not five years down the line. Knies is a piece of that puzzle, but he’s not the one carrying it yet. Keeping him on a bridge deal aligns with the “win now” vibe without choking the cap when they might need to tweak the roster—like if Marner walks or they finally snag a stud defenseman. He’s young enough that a shorter term doesn’t burn them long-term either. Glad you’re vibing with it—makes sense to play it cautious but smart while he’s still proving the ceiling.
Me:
Yeah it’s not about the core being old for me it’s about being able to afford the supporting cast needed to win a Stanley Cup.
Grok:
Totally get that—it’s less about the core’s age and more about the dollars around them. Matthews, Marner, and Nylander are locked in at $33 million combined, and even with the cap creeping up, that’s a huge chunk. The Leafs have scratched by with bargain-bin depth—guys like Kampf, Holmberg, or whatever rental they grab at the deadline—but a Cup needs more than that. You’re talking a legit top-four D-man or a third-line center who can win draws and kill penalties, not just fill minutes. Knies on a bridge at $5-6 million keeps that flexibility alive, maybe lets them chase a $4-5 million support piece instead of praying for another Tyler Bertuzzi discount. It’s all about the supporting cast carrying their weight when the playoffs get ugly—that’s where the Cup’s won or lost.