This morning I asked Grok about my hometown Toronto Blue Jays:
Hey Grok last night the Blue Jays beat the Orioles 8-2 to improve their record to 1-1 in this young season. What do you think the Jays will need to do this season to make the playoffs?
It’s great to hear the Blue Jays pulled off a solid 8-2 win against the Orioles last night, bringing their record to 1-1 as the 2025 season kicks off. With 160 games still ahead, it’s early days, but we can already start thinking about what they’ll need to do to punch a ticket to the postseason.
The Blue Jays play in the brutal AL East, where they’ll face stiff competition from teams like the Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays all year long. To make the playoffs—whether as a division winner or a wild card—they’ll likely need to win around 90-95 games, based on recent AL playoff thresholds. Last year, the third AL wild card (the Royals) got in with 86 wins, but the AL East’s top dogs often push closer to 90+ to secure a spot.
First off, their offense needs to fire on all cylinders. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are the heart of this lineup, and if last night’s performance is any sign, they could be in for a big year. Guerrero’s power and Bichette’s consistency will be key, but they’ll need the supporting cast—guys like George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and whoever’s filling the gaps—to step up. The Jays struggled with offensive depth in 2024, finishing with a 74-88 record, so getting more from the bottom of the order could be a game-changer.
Pitching’s the other big piece. Kevin Gausman and José Berríos need to anchor the rotation, and last night’s win suggests the staff might have some early momentum. But the bullpen’s been a question mark in the past, and staying healthy while keeping runs off the board late in games will be critical. If they can get a breakout from someone like Chris Bassitt or a young arm stepping up, that could tip the scales.
Defensively, they’re usually solid, but minimizing errors in tight divisional games will matter. The AL East is a grinder, and small mistakes can cost you against teams that don’t let up. Plus, with 48 interleague games on the 2025 schedule—facing tough NL squads like the Phillies, Braves, and Padres—they can’t afford to drop winnable matchups.
Health, luck, and a few clutch performances will play their part, as always. If the Jays can string together some winning streaks early—like building on last night’s W—and avoid the slow starts that plagued them in recent years (think that 10-game road trip to open 2024), they’ve got a shot. What do you think—any specific players or moves you’re hoping will push them over the edge?
Me:
That was going to be my next question – moves. If they are still in contention near the trade deadline you’ve got to think they will try to bolster their bull pen and add a big bat. You’ve also got to think that given that Guerrero and Bichette could walk away in free agency next season this could be the year to go all in with trades. Who do you think could be available at the trade deadline in terms of relievers and batters?
You’re spot-on—July 31, 2025 (assuming that’s the trade deadline, typically set for the last Tuesday or Wednesday of July), could be a defining moment for the Blue Jays if they’re in contention. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette hitting free agency after the season, this might be the year to go all-in, especially if they’re hovering around a wild card spot or challenging for the AL East. The trade deadline’s always a crapshoot this early—teams’ standings, injuries, and surprise performances shake things up—but let’s speculate on some relievers and bats that could be in play based on current rosters, contracts, and team trajectories as of March 29, 2025.
For the bullpen, the Jays’ 2024 relief corps was a disaster—dead last in the AL with a 4.82 ERA and a league-worst 2.5 fWAR below replacement. They’ve already added Jeff Hoffman and Yimi García this offseason, but if they’re pushing for October, they’ll want more high-leverage arms. Here’s who might be available:
- Ryan Helsley (RHP, Cardinals): Fresh off winning the NL’s Trevor Hoffman Award in 2024 with a 1.69 ERA and 49 saves, Helsley’s a rental with his contract expiring after 2025. The Cardinals are in a weird reset mode—too good to tank, too mediocre to contend in a tough NL Central. If they’re out of it by July, Helsley could fetch a haul from a contender like the Jays. He’s got closer stuff—97-99 mph fastball, filthy slider—and could slot in as a setup man or take over if Chad Green falters.
- Tanner Scott (LHP, Padres): Scott was an All-Star in 2024 (1.18 ERA, 18 saves) before getting traded to San Diego midseason. He’s a free agent after 2025, and the Padres’ payroll is always a tightrope act. If they’re fading in the NL West or wild card race—say, behind the Dodgers and Giants—they might flip him. A lefty with a 97 mph sinker and a wipeout slider would give the Jays a matchup weapon they’ve lacked.
- Erick Fedde (RHP, Cardinals): Another Cardinal, Fedde’s a hybrid option—starter or reliever—with a $7.5 million salary in 2025. After a 3.11 ERA in 2024, he’s affordable and versatile. If St. Louis sells, he could be a long-relief or spot-start guy for Toronto, easing bullpen strain in a playoff push.
- José Leclerc (RHP, Athletics): Leclerc signed with Oakland after a rocky 2024 (4.65 ERA), but he’s got a live arm (95-97 mph fastball, nasty changeup) and postseason experience from the Rangers’ 2023 World Series run. The A’s are perpetual sellers, and he’s a free agent after 2025. He’d be a cheaper, high-upside gamble for depth.
As for bats, the Jays’ lineup hinges on Guerrero and Bichette staying hot, but they’ve lacked a consistent power threat beyond them—Springer’s aging, and the bottom half of the order was quiet in 2024. They’ll need a middle-of-the-order stick or a versatile hitter to lengthen the lineup. Here’s who could be on the block:
- Luis Robert Jr. (CF, White Sox): Robert’s signed through 2025 with $20 million club options for 2026-27, so he’s not just a rental. Chicago’s in a rebuild, and while they’d demand a king’s ransom (think top prospects like Ricky Tiedemann), Robert’s a game-changer—.267/.315/.477 in 2024 with 18 HRs despite injuries. He’d slot into center, pushing Daulton Varsho to a corner, and give the Jays a 30-HR threat.
- Tommy Pham (OF, Pirates): Pham’s a mercenary—signed a one-year deal with Pittsburgh this offseason after bouncing around in 2024. He’s a .255 career hitter with pop (10-15 HR pace) and postseason chops. If the Pirates are middling in the NL Central, he’s a classic deadline rental—gritty, affordable, and a fit for right field or DH.
- Andrew Vaughn (1B, White Sox): Another Chicago option, Vaughn’s under control through 2027 and hit .244/.316/.409 with 19 HRs in 2024. He’s not a superstar, but he’s a right-handed bat with upside at 27. If the Jays move Guerrero to DH full-time or trade Justin Turner, Vaughn could anchor first base and add 20-25 HR power.
- Josh Rojas (UTIL, White Sox): Rojas joined Chicago this offseason and brings versatility—third, second, outfield—and a .260-ish bat with 10-15 HR potential. He’s a free agent after 2025, and the White Sox will likely shop anyone not nailed down. He’d be a depth piece, not a headliner, but useful in a long season.
The catch? It all depends on who’s selling. If the Cardinals, Padres, or White Sox are in the race, these guys stay put. And the Jays’ farm system isn’t deep—dealing prospects like Tiedemann or Orelvis Martinez for a rental would sting if Guerrero and Bichette walk. I’d bet they prioritize a reliever over a bat unless someone like Robert falls into their lap. What do you think—would you go big for a star like Robert or play it safer with a bullpen boost?
Me:
I say the Jays go for it with a top pitcher like Helsley and a bat like Robert’s. I like that Robert is not just a rental – he could come in handy in 2026 if Guerrero and Bichette indeed do walk.
I love the boldness—going for broke with a top-tier reliever like Ryan Helsley and a difference-maker like Luis Robert Jr. makes a ton of sense for the Jays, especially with that 2025 “all-in” vibe you’re feeling. If they’re in contention by July, pulling off those moves could turn them into legit AL threats, and Robert’s longer-term control adds a safety net for 2026 if Guerrero and Bichette bolt.
Helsley’s a slam dunk for the bullpen. That 1.69 ERA and 49 saves from 2024 aren’t flukes—his fastball-slider combo is elite, and he’d instantly stabilize those late innings where the Jays bled runs last year. Pair him with Hoffman and García, and suddenly you’ve got a lockdown relief crew that can shorten games. Gausman and Berríos won’t have to sweat every lead past the sixth. The Cardinals might ask for a steep prospect price—say, a top-100 guy like Jake Bloss or a high-upside arm—but if St. Louis is out of the NL wild card hunt, they’d be hard-pressed to say no to a contender’s offer.
Robert’s the real prize, though. He’s not just a rental, with those $20 million club options for 2026 and 2027, which gives Toronto flexibility. His 2024 line (.267/.315/.477, 18 HRs in 100 games) undersells his ceiling—he’s a former Gold Glove center fielder with 30-40 HR power when healthy. Plug him into center, shift Varsho to left or right, and you’ve got an outfield that can mash and defend. If Guerrero and Bichette walk after 2025, Robert becomes your cornerstone, pairing with prospects like Leo Jimenez or whoever’s coming up. The White Sox will want a haul—think Ricky Tiedemann plus another top-10 Jays prospect like Arjun Nimmala—but if you’re chasing a World Series now and a future without your stars, it’s a no-brainer.
The risk? You’re gutting the farm for a shot that hinges on staying healthy and hot in October. But the reward’s huge: a 2025 roster with Guerrero, Bichette, Robert, and a revamped pitching staff could finally get over the AL East hump. And if it works, 2026 isn’t a rebuild—it’s a retool around Robert. I say pull the trigger if the standings align. What prospects would you hate to see go in that deal, or are you all-in no matter the cost?
My Take 📸
I was not too happy with how the Jays performed in their home opener, which was a 12-2 blow-out.
However yesterday’s bounce-back win got me to thinking longer term and big picture.
You’ve got to think that if the Jays are going to lose Guerrero and Bichette they may as well go for it and add to the team at the deadline.
But it’s too early to tell right now.
The Jays are back at it today at 3:07 pm versus the Orioles with Max Scherzer on the mound at Rogers Centre.
Let’s see what the veteran and potential hall of famer brings to the table 😎